Friday, October 29, 2004

Resource update - OFCOM market review update

OFCOM is on a tear, following up their comprehensive market review of August with an update today, covering the period up to the end of September (for some data). Carrier pre-select lines are up by 13.5% sequentially in the most recent quarter, now accounting for 15% of all BT lines. The report contains a current estimate from Analysys that VoIP is in use in 0.35% of residential access lines, and o.14% of business lines. The UK has 24m residential lines, and 10.6m business lines, so this seems to equate to 84k residential users, and 14k business lines. Viewed as a percentage of the addressable market of broadband lines, this is more like 2% penetration. However, the 98k number implied clearly excludes Skype. Based on information on geographical distribution of Skype users, I believe there are currently over 200k Skype users in the UK market. This implies that the true VoIP penetration of total broadband lines in the UK is more like 6%, before whatever uplift we miss from voice IM.


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